Nate Silver says Donald Trump has a 58% chance of winning the presidential election
US election analyst Nate Silver puts Republican nominee Donald Trump's chances of defeating Vice President Kamala Harris higher than at any time since Harris announced her candidacy in July.
Despite the investigations, we will continue to show that Harris has a slight advantage over Trump, Silver Justified In the fourth round, the Democrat underperformed in recent polls, with Trump now at a 58.2 percent chance of winning the November election, compared to 41.6 percent for Harris. This time, last week, Silver’s model gave Trump a 52.4 percent chance of winning and put Harris’s chances at 47.3 percent.
Silver forecasts are regularly cited in the US media and are considered among the most influential in the country. His methodology analyzes surveys, economic data, social engagement and other factors – including the post-conference period. “Quecar” This usually pushes the candidate back several weeks after the official nomination.
Democrats will confirm Harris as their party's nominee at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago three weeks ago. However, Harris has not received “Quecar” “What you're usually facing is two candidates,” Silver explained. CNN Investigations A post-convention poll showed Harris and Trump tied in three swing states and up by about five points in more than three, while a YouGov poll showed Democrats up by two points nationwide.
With these investigations taking place after the conference, Harris must maintain broader leadership, Silver said.
Silver’s forecasts contrast with other research institutes. FiveThirtyEight, an analyst firm founded by Silver, says that in the current election, Harris has a 55 percent chance of winning, while Trump has a 44 percent chance. While FiveThirtyEight and Silver use the same methodology, FiveThirtyEight puts more emphasis Investigations as Election Day Approaches
However, individual investigations can be misleading. The New York Times enquire Last year alone, Harris beat Trump 50% to 46% in the crucial states of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan. However, the poll overshot to show two Democrats, and when adjusted, showed Harris and Trump in a statistical tie in three states.
For both Harris and Trump, defeating Pennsylvania and its 19 electoral votes, or Michigan and Wisconsin's combined 25, will be essential to winning the election.
Silver's model shows Trump winning in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada and North Carolina, with the candidates tied in Michigan and Harris with a slight lead in Wisconsin.
He added: “It is not necessary to say that things happened in a strange way than the victory of a candidate who delayed the investigations.” Silver beware. “In America’s polarized political climate, most elections are open and an out-of-contest candidate rarely wins.”
