As Andrés Manuel López Obrador approaches the final hours of his presidency, debate is already swirling over the legacy the Mexican leader, widely known as AMLO, is about to leave behind.
AMLO will leave office, which is limited to one six-year term under Mexico's constitution, in the runoff with an approval rating that has never fallen below 60 percent.
The political parties that previously dominated Mexico have stepped aside in favor of the rise of the Morena Party and its successor as president-elect Claudia Sheinbaum. Obtain devastating victory Junho's choices in the country.
“López Obrador is leaving power with a very high level of popularity, which is very different from what happened in previous governments,” Pablo Becato, a professor of Mexican history at Columbia University in the US, told Al Jazeera.
additional López Obrador's time was not precious She was more controversial than her widespread popularity would suggest, and in her final weeks we were unlikely to see protests against a series of reforms spearheaded by her government.
While supporters credit AMLO for significant reductions in poverty through policies such as raising the minimum wage, labor reforms, and social security payments, critics accuse it of undermining democratic oversight and failing to address serious abuses and insecurity.
“The theme of AMLO or his time is that his government represents a break like in the past, a new order,” Picato said, noting that López Obrador also saw his administration as a break with the neoliberal, pro-market political philosophy.
But it is clear that these matters are not simple.”
Reductions in poverty rates
López Obrador often says that from the beginning his government was a “fourth transformation.”
This effectively compares his term as president to previous periods in the country's history – independence from Spain, and the era of liberal reforms in the Mexican Revolution – that radically transformed Mexico.
Supporters point to the economic changes that occurred during AMLO's term as evidence that his administration has begun another historic period. Broken like the past.
“The most positive area of the AMLO administration has been labor reforms and reducing poverty and inequality,” Ferré Ríos, a Mexican academic and analyst, told Al Jazeera. “About 5.1 million people will escape poverty between 2018 and 2022, the most significant reduction in poverty in more than 20 years.”
He also noted that the president has introduced a series of economic policies, such as doubling the minimum wage in the country and tripling it in areas near the US border, where many companies are setting up industrial facilities. Our government has also instituted labor reforms that will facilitate unionization efforts.
But while AMLO presented himself as a defender of the poor who challenged the establishment and the country's commercial interests, others in Mexico argued that his changes were transformative.
Embora López Obrador has expanded programs such as pension payments and money transfers, and Mexico's social expenditures remain the lowest among all OECD countries. The country's fiscal policy also remains relatively contained.
“We are aware of the amount of taxes incurred by Mexico as points of GDP, which is about 16%. “It ranks lower than in the Bahamas,” Rios said. “There is not enough tax collection and Amlo is not among the participants.”
Ongoing security problems
On matters of crime and security, López Obrador has defined his success by continuity, not change. As loved ones of the country's missing continue to seek justice for Mexicans amid impressive rates of violence, AMLO says the trends will remain practically on his watch.
World Bank data shows that the country's homicide rate fell from 30 per 100,000 people in 2018, when AMLO took office, to 28 per 100,000 people in 2021. In 2022, Mexico recorded 32,223 homicides, a decrease of about 10 percent. With respect to the previous year.
However, these numbers still ignore the oppressive reality that many Mexicans face.
A 2024 survey by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography found that more than 73 percent of people reported feeling unsafe, and 22 percent reported that there had been homicides in the area where they lived.
Responsibility for perpetrators of violence – by criminal groups and the state itself – is also rare, with 95% of murders remaining unsolved.
AMLO initially campaigned with a promise to resist the militaristic approach to fighting crime that had caused violence against previous governments.
After a long period of enhanced militarism, López Obrador expanded military authority to include public security, military conscription to assist with infrastructure projects and administrative tasks, and granting control over ports and airlines.
Last week, the Mexican Senate approved a controversial bill that puts the National Guard, previously under nominal civilian control, under the command of two military personnel.
“Anyone in the National Guard would only be subject to military justice, and would have their own courts, promoters of the military justice system, and decisions and rulings that would not be made public,” said Will Freeman, a Latin American studies scholar at the council. The State Department, a US-based think tank, spoke to Al Jazeera.
He added: “The army, through its operational control over the National Guard, has a certain degree of veto power over the security decisions of civilian leaders.”
Or a divisive method
The growing relations between the president and the army also put us in conflict with human rights defenders Or the country disappears.
According to conservative government estimates, 113,000 people are still missing in Mexico, many of them victims of criminal groups, state security forces, or both.
As a candidate, López Obrador promises responsibility for violations, e.g 43 students disappeared Faculty in Ayotzinapa in 2014. International investigators accused the military of obstructing investigations and playing a possible role in what happened.
But once he was unable to do so, activists and relatives of the two missing people became disillusioned, so they supported the military version of events – a position that sparked widespread protests.
He also announced that his government would re-evaluate the official number of missing persons in Mexico, considering the current numbers to be unreasonably high. Human rights groups and advocates say this proves that there is an underestimation.
“The dispute over Ayotzinapa has severed ties between the victims and the president. This potential alliance appears to have been broken,” Guadalupe Correa Cabrera, a professor of politics and government at George Mason University, told Al Jazeera.
Volunteers who organize investigative efforts Some of the bodies of missing loved ones were attacked by AMLO, who accused investigators of being motivated by “necrophilic delirium.”
The remark is typical of López Obrador's combative rhetoric, which critics say has contributed to increasingly polarized sentiment in Mexican politics.
“AMLO constantly speaks negatively about his opposition, the press, civil society and the same human rights institutions,” academic Rios said. “He has a very straightforward way of confronting what opposes his agenda.”
Controversial reforms
This polarization was evident during the final weeks of López Obrador's term, when the legislature approved… A series of reforms He did his best for the president.
What is more controversial is that it is constitutional change that will occur in the long term Judges are candidates for election.
Critics will claim that this law will politicize the judiciary and undermine democratic checks and controls, while advocates will claim that it will make judges more accountable.
The final vote is scheduled to take place this month Protesters storm the Senate Kamara interrupts the proceedings and shouts, “The judiciary will not fall!”
The bill was approved in the Senate on September 11 by a vote of 86 to 41, removing what was considered the most significant obstacle to reform.
This was not the first time Amlo had been criticized They are accused of unifying or controlling independent institutions. Last year, demonstrators also marched in the streets to protest changes to the National Electoral Institute, which oversees Mexican elections.
But while critics see a trend toward democratic backsliding and the destruction of institutional autonomy, AMLO and his supporters present reforms as part of a battle against powerful and entrenched interests.
“The system of corruption and privileges is becoming day by day more distant from the past, and a true democracy and a true state of the dereto must be built,” Sheinbaum, López Obrador’s successor, said in a post on social networks celebrating the law’s approval. Judicial reforms.
Now, as AMLO prepares to leave office, both his supporters and critics believe López Obrador's political vision will continue to shape the country's course.
While Morena's party secures an absolute majority in Congress, and Sheinbaum prepares to take his place, the dead president's most lasting legacy may be the revitalization of Mexican politics taking place under his watch.
“Previously, several parties were unable to fully control Congress. Now López Obrador’s party has managed to achieve an absolute majority,” Becatto said. “This is something new and many people are very concerned about it.”
