The intensity of the cross-border attacks between Hezbollah and Israel was followed by a stunning series of attacks on August 25.
But after a frenetic week in Israel, in which news of the execution of six Israeli prisoners led to mass protests against Netanyahu’s government, there is doubt among analysts about whether the prime minister can intensify his efforts on our fronts as a distraction.
“We will exact a heavy price from Hamas; you cannot say what it will be or what price we will pay; there will be an element of surprise here,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said during a group interview at the second exhibition.
But beyond demanding a permanent Israeli presence in the Philadelphi Corridor, on the border with Egypt's Sinai, and thus ensuring that Gaza ceasefire negotiations remain paralyzed, Netanyahu has given few indications about the direction he will take.
What also remains to be seen is that Hezbollah has drawn boundaries in the area and demonstrated sufficient deterrence to dissuade Israel from viewing this as a potential distraction.
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Hezbollah began intensifying its attacks on Israel on October 8, a day after Israel launched what appeared to be a retaliatory war against Gaza, followed by a Hamas-led attack on Israel in which 1,139 people were killed, including 240 prisoners.
Tensions will also rise to boiling point.
On July 31, Israel visits building in Beirut's southern suburbFive dead – two children, two women and senior Hezbollah commander Fouad Shukr.
Israel says Shukr was responsible for the attack on Majdal Shams in the occupied Syrian Gola Hills that killed 12 children. Hezbollah has denied responsibility for the attack.
Shukr was the most prominent leader of the Israeli Hezbollah to be assassinated in Lebanon, but he was not the first.
On January 8, Israel killed Wissam al-Tawil, the commander of Hezbollah’s special Radwan force, in Majdal Silm, just six days after Saleh al-Arouri, a senior official in Hamas’s Qassam Brigades, was killed in our southern suburbs of Beirut.
After Shukr's assassination, cross-border attacks intensified as Hezbollah promised to defend its fallen comrade.
In the early hours of August 25, Israel launched what was said to be a preemptive attack on Hezbollah positions in Lebanon, using 100 units to target thousands of Hezbollah launch sites.
At least 15 Lebanese cities have been warned of a major Israeli attack on Hezbollah since October 8.
Hezbollah launched its own attack that same month, with Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah saying 340 bullets were fired at Israel, targeting at least 11 military and intelligence sites and the Glilot military base, less than a mile from Tel Aviv.
Hezbollah issued a statement saying that the “first phase” of revenge had ended successfully.
Netanyahu criticized Nasrallah's claim, saying that Galileo was not targeted.
Will deterrence be renewed?
Hezbollah has repeatedly stressed that its fighting with Israel is linked to Gaza and that it will stop once a ceasefire is reached.
However, some will treat it as a separate conflict, such as some Western diplomats. It should work for several months. To avoid a wider war in Lebanon.
Analysts said the latest attack was aimed at restoring deterrence to prevent Israel from attacking Hezbollah's key leaders, especially in cities like Beirut.
“Hezbollah has effectively regained a significant level of deterrence for its large-scale campaign of revenge to justify the assassination of Fouad Shukr,” Imad Salameh, a political analyst at the Lebanese American University in Beirut, told Al Jazeera.
“This refutes Israel's claims that Hezbollah's capabilities have been significantly reduced and clearly shows that Hezbollah has maintained firm command and control, despite the very costly, 10-month Israeli military campaign aimed at weakening the party,” Salami added.
Regardless of the two results announced on Sunday, analysts told Al Jazeera that a certain stability had arrived in the conflict that had existed. friend is in control and Attract players From the region and Germany.
Reuters reported that Israel and Hezbollah said last year that they did not want further escalation. Analysts also appear to be proving that the easing of tensions is not temporary.
“For Lebanon, the party’s (Hezbollah) attack in Fez is similar to the things that happened before the assassination of Fouad Shukr,” Qassem Qassir, a political analyst who claims to be close to Hezbollah, told Al Jazeera.
“I see (this latest change) basically as a coordinated attempt by the United States to turn (the page) and prevent escalation,” said Karim Emile Bitar, a professor of international relations at Saint Joseph University in Beirut.
“Israel will probably continue to attack certain areas in Lebanon, but I doubt they will go after an important figure like Fouad Shukr in the near future.”
Quiet period
Given the protracted war in Lebanon, it appeared to have been brought forward on August 25, but given the internal unrest in Israel, it remains unknown whether the conflict will flare up again.
Israel has killed more than 560 people in Lebanon since October 8, including more than 130 civilians. On the Israeli side, about 23 soldiers and 26 civilians have been killed in attacks coming from Lebanon.
Tens of thousands have been displaced on both sides of the border, while the Israelis are supposedly trying to consolidate it. Buffer zone Not South Lebanon, trying to make the land uninhabitable and impossible to cultivate.
Many people showed a tired face as the conflict continued, or their appearance was no longer visible.
“Any miscalculation (by Israel) could lead to a very costly and long-term military retaliation campaign, which has proven to be very costly for Israel on several levels, militarily and politically,” Salami said.
The rapid resilience shown by Hezbollah means that Israel must weigh the risks more carefully before engaging in a new escalation.
Perhaps many in Lebanon, Israel and our countries, who fear a wider war, can breathe a temporary sigh of relief, but the storm has not completely passed.
“Climbing is still possible,” Kassir said. “We are in a calm period, but it is not guaranteed.”
