One of the biggest election races in the world, the presidential election of the United States (POTUS), is ready to begin. By the end of the fourth week of August, Democrats will be finalizing their candidate to take on former President and Republican nominee Donald Trump.
After the disastrous last debate between Biden and Trump, Democrats are now grappling with the nomination of the current US president, who recently announced that he will not seek re-election. His endorsement by Vice President Kamala Harris has yet to receive final approval from two party leaders. Naturally, time is short for Democrats to mount an effective challenge.
The US political landscape has changed dramatically since Trump survived an assassination attempt this month. There are many arguments that the election is not over yet, as the odds seem to be firmly in the Republican Party’s favor so far. The party can not only win Casa-Branca, but also both houses of the US Congress, the House of Representatives and the Senate.
“The Transitional Project”
Governments and administrations around the world are trying to gauge what a second Trump administration might be able to create. It is clear that, unlike in 2016, there is now the benefit of hindsight to develop a calibrated policy for engagement with the United States. Here, beyond past experience, political planners are looking at a 900-page document, the 2025 Presidential Transition Project, in which experts in the field will list administrations’ policy prescriptions and list governors for making fundamental changes in the way they govern.
The project, led by the Heritage Foundation, a Washington-based think tank that reflects Republican views, is an important and broad contribution, given that Trump, in his first administration, explored the organization’s experience extensively. Trump may not have given the document official endorsement, but it should be viewed with great interest by political planners.
How can India-US relations evolve?
The bilateral relationship between the two democracies is described only in India as a “global strategic partnership.” The distinguishing feature is the fact that Nova Deli enjoys bipartisan support in Washington. Successive administrations, whether Democratic or Republican, will continue to cooperate with India. From the depths of the sea to astronomical space, the partnership opens up a wide range of issues. And so members of the US Congress have also shown a more flexible spirit in the past three decades.
In terms of multi-sectoral engagement, there have been three main areas: defense cooperation, or strategic engagement in trade and investment. After his previous administration, these will remain top priorities for Trump if he returns as president. He is betting on “making America great again” and intends to turn two American manufacturers back into manufacturing units that will move their efforts to overseas facilities.
What does it do for business relationships?
Statistics for 2022 show that bilateral trade between India and the United States in markets and services amounted to $191.43 billion. This value, while Indian exports account for $118.53 billion, and US exports are about $72.90 billion. India has a trade balance of more than $100,000 in its favor.
The second Trump administration is expected to exert uncompromising pressure on expanding trade and services with all countries, including India. The trade section of the Project 2025 report, citing US government figures, notes that with a deficit of $1.138 billion with 14 major trading partners, India ranks 11th. Negotiators can expect tough negotiations, with each side determined to secure a better deal for the country.
Defending strategic relationships
Relations in this sector continue to flourish, especially since the establishment of the Quadro Defence Cooperation Agreement in 2005, which was renewed for more than a decade in 2015. In addition, India has been classified as a “Parcero de Divisa” flagship agreement promoted by New Deli to grant strategic commercial licensing.
Last year, the two sides also finalized a defense industrial cooperation agreement and launched a defense acceleration ecosystem to build a network of universities, incubators, think tanks and private investment.
The sector will be watched closely, as India is working on a plan to build specialized industrial corridors to manufacture defense equipment in the country with technology transfer, something that American companies working in critical technologies are not particularly interested in. However, this contradicts the decision taken by the Capitol to provide India with incentives to destroy Russian military equipment.
Finally, India is joined by two Quad and Indo-Pacific groups, which received a strong boost during the previous Trump administration. Embora a China or Iran and North Korea occupies a central place in the analysis of the story, with reference to India, the document appears in relation to Pakistan and the tensions over Jammu and Kashmiri, and proposes a “Quad plus” approach.
(KV Prasad is a senior daily wage labourer based in Delhi)
Disclaimer: These are the author's personal opinions.
